Articles Archive for August 2009
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The week that was:
It was a week of treading water with longer term trades once more. Aussie up, China down, U.S. once again indecisive.
If our overall view is to the long side the weeks where all these things line up at once are where we see our big equity increases. Commodities are often dragged up with the rising Equities markets, and with a strong directional move in play we will usually break free of congestion giving good results for any short term trend following systems as well. The rest of the time we sit on our hands until a trading opportunity presents itself, without allowing the daily fluctuations to distract us from our system rules.
The week ahead may be more interesting with NFP due out on Friday as well as Rates & GDP for a few economies.
FX:
No trading during the week as I was busy with travel. Still congesting in a small range overall.
Equities:
No new positions and no changes to the existing 5 positions I’m holding. Just sitting tight and waiting for the market to make its move.
Equity Sectors:
Opted for one sector trade on the Aussie market during the week which has behaved well in a sluggish week.
Commodities:
No new positions added during the week, maintaining two active positions still.
Results:
FX : R
Equities : R
Equity Sectors : R
Commodities : R
Housekeeping:
The week ahead:
Should be some interesting movement with a wide variety of news.
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The week that was:
Or maybe I should call it the week that wasn’t. It’s not often that equities markets fall out of correlation so it was interesting to watch it unfold during the week. With the U.S. economic might ruling global markets for so long now, the dynamics of China and its abundance of internal consumers is a new factor for people to wrap their heads around, including the Chinese Government!
As traders any movement is good! Up, down, just give me anything but sideways as I’m not doing options strategies at the moment. Every pullback offers us an opportunity to go for more, and retain what we have. Levels are created for placing stops, new support areas defined for later pullbacks, and we can let our creative juices flow on how to pyramid into sustained trends looking for the home run trades that will swell our account. Although the pain of a market pullback as we watch the days of red ink nudging towards our stops can be distracting, the opportunities presented make it all worthwhile.
FX:
The FX markets continue to grind out in this range so there aren’t a lot of great trading days. Given I’m busy travelling and distracted from watching the screen due to other activities it’s no great loss at this point in time.
Equities:
With the markets out of sync at the moment I’m happy to wait before making too many new moves. Even with the US breaking out I’m not getting any great buy signals so I’m happy to wait and see what the weeks ahead bring, while the current trades continue to roll along. I was also caught up in a corporate action requiring a risk assessment/adjustment on a CFD position due to an increase of the position size. The strong close on the S&P Friday will hopefully propel us into the next mini trend.
Equity Sectors:
Highly likely to get some trades this coming week given the positioning of the equity markets on Friday.
Commodities:
A busy week. Rolled out of last weeks trade which was a short for a break even, added a new trade and pyramided into another. Still plenty of commodities showing strength to the upside as the work economic view continues to improve. It was also contract rollover on Friday for many commodities.
Results:
FX : R
Equities : R
Equity Sectors : R
Commodities : R
Housekeeping:
The week ahead:
Consumer Confidence numbers for the U.S. will be keenly watched given they failed to impress the last time around. SHOW ME THE CONFIDENCE AMERICA!
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The week that was:
So let’s talk about being in “the zone”. There have been plenty of books written about it, professional sportspeople love to talk about it, but what does it really mean? It’s one of those things that will change from person to person, especially as a trader. Some traders love isolation, they like to lock themselves up and just focus on the market. Others like the rockstar approach, blogging, tweeting or announcing every win to the world as loud as they can.
For myself my trading zone is one free of interruptions and distractions. I like to have a routine, do the same things each day, and seemingly without effort the trades come to me. Currently I’m outside this space. Illness is usually the number one thing that puts me off balance with my trading rhythm, so this combined with moving countries and a total change in climate has me trying to trade well outside my comfort zone at the moment.
With more interruptions due late next week with some business trips planned my goal is simple – shut out everything but the action on the screen for the week with as few distractions as possible. When everything is in place the elusive “zone” will surround me again, the charts will seem neater somehow, and the trades will again be actioned without thought.
As always having longer term systems gives me a balance though. They tend to be more rugged systems where sloppy entries are easily absorbed into the price movement. Perfection is well down the list under the simple rule of just getting onboard the trend. A few money management calculations will take care of the rest.
There may be 200 or so trading days in each year, but this is not your normal business. You can’t open on a long weekend to make some extra sales, or kick off a marketing campaign for a boost. If you rely on short term systems you will have periods where you simply cannot trade for a variety of reasons. We are bound by the market and the time frames within which it trades. Keep this in mind when you calculate how you’re going to make 5% every week compounded until you absorb all the money in the world, the reality is far different….
FX:
No trades during an unsettled week, plenty of observation and ideas to toss around as always. A break out from this congestion area on the USD index giving a strong move is still the ideal scenario.
Equities:
No actions for the week, the Shanghai composite coming off hasn’t triggered any more stops yet and is a welcome reset in the strong trend to give me a base for the next round of buying.
Equity Sectors:
Still no trades to jump on board for the systems I have in place.
Commodities:
No actions, still sitting in the one position.
Results:
FX : R
Equities : R
Equity Sectors : R
Commodities : R
Housekeeping:
Find my zone!
The week ahead:
Not too much news to deal with, I’d like to see the equity markets settle back into their usual correlation before getting active with buying again.
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The week that was:
It was a messy, messy week, well, apart from the markets which were a little more interesting. Over the years I’ve heard on countless occasions “once you trade X, you’ll never trade anything else again”. Yet it always seems these turn out to be the wise words of the uneducated, as they ramp up the sales pitch for the latest fad or gimmick they are selling to a misguided public.
So my Monday started out a bit rough, wasn’t feeling well so watched a few trades on the FX markets before it became obvious the rest of the day would be observed from the couch. If only that had been the case! Turns out I was in for a visit from the now legendary H1N1 virus, or maybe just it’s evil twin, as I was trying to avoid doctors and possible quarantine to make my Thursday country transition on schedule! Either way it was an impressive illness and trading any sort of focused short term trading was the last thing I was going to be capable of.
As a trader there is no sick leave to bank on, no boss waiting for a medical certificate as my reason for not being able to do my job for a few days. It’s just myself, and the market. Thus having a trading plan with longer term strategies suddenly comes into it’s own. While I was down for the count and then stuck on a plane with a faulty engine (long story), my trades kept merrily working away building my bank for me. No need to be sitting watching the FX markets, E-mini markets, or working out the latest hot options play.
People often talk about finding the “balance” in life, in trading it is no different. Trading multiple markets and time frames has many advantages, from giving us a more dynamic risk profile, though to a more flexible lifestyle thanks to not having to watch charts all day long. While we probably all get drawn in to trading via one particular instrument, remember to see what else is out there. Having the market work for you while you take a vacation is far more useful than being able to trade FX from your blackberry anywhere, anytime.
So in the meantime the S&P headed up trough 1000 for the first time during this rally. A little resistance here around the 1000 mark though so we’ll see how this plays out. The Shanghai Composite is making its double top as well so a small retracement may be in order.
FX:
Apart from observing a few nice setups on the open of the Monday European session, the rest of the week I was a write off for me. A quick look when I was finally back on deck and it doesn’t appear I missed much with NFP making a bit of a mess.
Equities:
Stopped out of one more long term trade which has simply failed and headed down while the rest of the market is heading up. This is a handy stop out as it frees up my capital to go after a trade that will hopefully cooperate and follow the market up at least! Still 5 active positions that are giving mixed results at this early stage of the market move.
Equity Sectors:
Still no trades in play.
Commodities:
No new actions, just the one position still in play.
Results:
FX : R
Equities : -1.0R
Equity Sectors : R
Commodities : R
Housekeeping:
Settle into new trading base.
The week ahead:
FOMC week!
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The week that was:
Well it was hardly a week to remember, in fact I can think of very little worth writing about. A few new positions were entered, markets went up and down, that was about it. It was boring, there’s no other way to sum it up.
In trading we have a unique balance. On the one had it is the most boring thing I have ever done in my life. Hours of watching screens only to have no signals. Days and weeks of watching stocks bounce up and down as the market looks for direction. For a few brief moments we may switch on to take a trade, then stops and targets are set, and our role in the process comes to an end. The outcome is beyond our control, probabilities and testing our only solace that there is indeed some order to the chaos. But still, it beats working for a living.
FX:
No trades for the week in a congested market. There were still plenty of outcomes with a final definition for the signal which has been most prevalent this week, giving the system a better coverage of different market conditions.
Equities:
A mixed week, a few positions up, a few still wondering what to do. No stops hit & no actions required on the six I’m holding. There is room in my portfolio heat to look at one more position, although nothing is jumping out at first look.
Equity Sectors:
Waiting for a good setup to get in, nothing of interest during the week.
Commodities:
Still holding the one position and finally at break even! It was a painful slog through the S&P congestion but now I have some breathing space here. No other signals of interest on commodities for the week. Oil is messing around a little as we try to decide if we are or aren’t coming out of the recession, and the USD has held support halting oils currency based appreciation for the moment.
Results:
FX : R
Equities : R
Equity Sectors : R
Commodities : R
Housekeeping:
No stops to move this week, just scan for new trades.
The week ahead:
Plenty of news on the horizon! Rates for the AUD & GBP, and don’t forget about NFP on Friday which should make the market jump. Plenty of news all week long so it should be an interesting week.





